The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed Thursday that La Niña conditions have emerged. The announcement came as part of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) update. The gist of their update: This La Niña is expected to be weak, and it’s expected to be short-lived.
“La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025 – February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance),” they wrote. “At this time, La Niña is expected to remain weak (3-month average Niño-3.4 index value at or between -0.5°C and -0.9°C). A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”
Just last month, NOAA predicted we were headed for a short-lived La Niña, and so far, it looks like conditions are still trending in that direction.
La Niña conditions are present and favored to persist through December 2025-February 2026, with a transition to #ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 (55% chance). A #LaNina Advisory is now in effect. https://t.co/5zlzaZ0D9Z pic.twitter.com/BdppfqhjMU
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) October 9, 2025
La Niña conditions are triggered by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures around the equatorial Pacific Ocean — the inverse of El Niño conditions. The impact on weather throughout the event varies throughout the globe, with La Niña typically kicking Atlantic Hurricane Season into higher gear, stormier and colder winters in the Northern United States, and often drier and warmer winters in the Southern United States, for example. It’s not the only engine driving weather conditions around the globe, but it can play a significant role in the outcome of a given winter.
“A weak La Niña is less likely to result in typical La Niña winter impacts,” NOAA said in another social media announcement. “However, it could still influence the 2025-2026 winter season.”
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